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icon for イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？
地政学·イランの停戦

イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？

icon for イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？
地政学·イランの停戦

イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？

$8,447,404 Vol.

2026/09/30
Polymarket

$8,447,404 Vol.

Polymarket

9月30日

$260,256 Vol.

1%

12月31日

$225,355 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon anchors trader sentiment on this market. Under the accord, the IDF agreed only to limited pilot-zone withdrawals from two small areas north and south of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control there, while any broader redeployment remains strictly conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and dismantlement across Lebanon. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated there is no fixed timetable and that forces will remain in the southern security zone until threats are eliminated, with pilot steps described as involving territory the military does not require. Continued IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets and absence of disarmament progress since the signing have sustained low implied probabilities for announced full withdrawals by near-term resolution dates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$8,447,404
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.The June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon anchors trader sentiment on this market. Under the accord, the IDF agreed only to limited pilot-zone withdrawals from two small areas north and south of the Litani River, with the Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control there, while any broader redeployment remains strictly conditioned on verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and dismantlement across Lebanon. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz, have stated there is no fixed timetable and that forces will remain in the southern security zone until threats are eliminated, with pilot steps described as involving territory the military does not require. Continued IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets and absence of disarmament progress since the signing have sustained low implied probabilities for announced full withdrawals by near-term resolution dates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$8,447,404
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...

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外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で5%、次いで「9月30日」が1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」は$8.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」の現在のリーダーは「12月31日」でわずか5%、「9月30日」が1%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。