Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,183 Vol.
2026/12/30
4.50％未満
73%
4.45％未満
66%
4.40%未満
43%
4.35%未満
35%
4.30％未満
32%
4.25%未満
19%
4.20%未満
11%
4.10%未満
12%
4.00%未満
9%
$25,183 Vol.
4.50％未満
$1,495 Vol.
73%
4.45％未満
$2,866 Vol.
66%
4.40%未満
$1,894 Vol.
43%
4.35%未満
$3,226 Vol.
35%
4.30％未満
$2,601 Vol.
32%
4.25%未満
$834 Vol.
19%
4.20%未満
$3,973 Vol.
11%
4.10%未満
$6,694 Vol.
12%
4.00%未満
$1,600 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$25,183終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$25,183終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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