Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections anchor trader sentiment for the September–December rate path, with the September 16 hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range and a hawkish dot plot—median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026—reflecting 16 of 18 participants’ expectation of at least one additional 25-basis-point move. Persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.4% and headline PCE projected at 3.7% for 2026 amid supply pressures and energy costs, competes against a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, creating tight odds between sequences featuring two or three hikes. Market-implied probabilities remain closely balanced because upcoming October and December decisions hinge on incoming data releases, including CPI, PCE, and employment reports, whose outcomes could shift the pace of tightening versus a pause while the FOMC maintains its focus on returning inflation to the 2% target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日連続利上げ 33%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 32%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 19%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 13%
$90,258 Vol.
$90,258 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
32%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
13%
連続利上げ
33%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
19%
その他
3%
連続利上げ 33%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 32%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 19%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 13%
$90,258 Vol.
$90,258 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$7,738 Vol.
32%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$18,644 Vol.
13%
連続利上げ
$17,875 Vol.
33%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$21,909 Vol.
19%
その他
$1,706 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent Federal Reserve actions and projections anchor trader sentiment for the September–December rate path, with the September 16 hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range and a hawkish dot plot—median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026—reflecting 16 of 18 participants’ expectation of at least one additional 25-basis-point move. Persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.4% and headline PCE projected at 3.7% for 2026 amid supply pressures and energy costs, competes against a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, creating tight odds between sequences featuring two or three hikes. Market-implied probabilities remain closely balanced because upcoming October and December decisions hinge on incoming data releases, including CPI, PCE, and employment reports, whose outcomes could shift the pace of tightening versus a pause while the FOMC maintains its focus on returning inflation to the 2% target.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$90,258終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent Federal Reserve actions and projections anchor trader sentiment for the September–December rate path, with the September 16 hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range and a hawkish dot plot—median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026—reflecting 16 of 18 participants’ expectation of at least one additional 25-basis-point move. Persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.4% and headline PCE projected at 3.7% for 2026 amid supply pressures and energy costs, competes against a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, creating tight odds between sequences featuring two or three hikes. Market-implied probabilities remain closely balanced because upcoming October and December decisions hinge on incoming data releases, including CPI, PCE, and employment reports, whose outcomes could shift the pace of tightening versus a pause while the FOMC maintains its focus on returning inflation to the 2% target.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$90,258終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections anchor trader sentiment for the September–December rate path, with the September 16 hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range and a hawkish dot plot—median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026—reflecting 16 of 18 participants’ expectation of at least one additional 25-basis-point move. Persistent inflation, with core PCE at 3.4% and headline PCE projected at 3.7% for 2026 amid supply pressures and energy costs, competes against a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, creating tight odds between sequences featuring two or three hikes. Market-implied probabilities remain closely balanced because upcoming October and December decisions hinge on incoming data releases, including CPI, PCE, and employment reports, whose outcomes could shift the pace of tightening versus a pause while the FOMC maintains its focus on returning inflation to the 2% target.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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