The Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.1 percent median year-end 2026 dot, has driven market-implied odds for at least one additional hike this year above 80 percent. Persistent inflation—PCE near 3.7 percent and core at 3.4 percent—remains well above the 2 percent target, while a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1 percent reduces the urgency for easing. Futures pricing and the dot plot distribution, with 16 of 18 participants seeing further tightening, reflect trader consensus that policy must stay restrictive longer amid geopolitical energy pressures. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and employment data could confirm or alter the path.