**No at 76%** reflects the low baseline annual rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts combined with the absence of any detected threats for the remainder of 2026. NASA CNEOS fireball data indicate roughly 0.7–1 such events per year on average since the late 1980s, with meter-scale impactors releasing energies near or above 5 kt occurring on roughly annual timescales. As of mid-September 2026, no qualifying bolide has been recorded, and the remaining ~3.5 months yield a modest probability of occurrence. No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories, according to ongoing NASA and ESA monitoring; recent fireballs, including the tiny 2026 RW1 impactor and a September Kentucky event releasing only ~0.05 kt, have remained well below threshold. Market-implied odds therefore embed both the historical frequency and the lack of new observational data that would elevate near-term risk.