Trader consensus favoring "No" at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September of any qualifying event under the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (sustained winds ≥157 mph) making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or a 10 kt+ meteor airburst. The Atlantic basin has produced no hurricanes at all this season amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity well below thresholds. Historical rarity of these extremes—roughly one Category 5 U.S. landfall every few years on average and infrequent VEI 6+ eruptions—supports the current positioning, with resolution still dependent on remaining 2026 data from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program sources.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
21% 確率
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
21% 確率
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September of any qualifying event under the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (sustained winds ≥157 mph) making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or a 10 kt+ meteor airburst. The Atlantic basin has produced no hurricanes at all this season amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity well below thresholds. Historical rarity of these extremes—roughly one Category 5 U.S. landfall every few years on average and infrequent VEI 6+ eruptions—supports the current positioning, with resolution still dependent on remaining 2026 data from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$246,739終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September of any qualifying event under the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (sustained winds ≥157 mph) making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or a 10 kt+ meteor airburst. The Atlantic basin has produced no hurricanes at all this season amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity well below thresholds. Historical rarity of these extremes—roughly one Category 5 U.S. landfall every few years on average and infrequent VEI 6+ eruptions—supports the current positioning, with resolution still dependent on remaining 2026 data from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$246,739終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September of any qualifying event under the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane (sustained winds ≥157 mph) making U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or a 10 kt+ meteor airburst. The Atlantic basin has produced no hurricanes at all this season amid neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows only lower-magnitude activity well below thresholds. Historical rarity of these extremes—roughly one Category 5 U.S. landfall every few years on average and infrequent VEI 6+ eruptions—supports the current positioning, with resolution still dependent on remaining 2026 data from NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program sources.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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