**USGS analysis establishes that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur on Earth**, as no known fault system is long or deep enough to release the required energy; a qualifying rupture would need to span much of the planet's circumference. The instrumental record confirms this limit, with the 1960 Valdivia, Chile event at 9.5 remaining the largest ever measured on the moment magnitude scale. Recent global seismicity reinforces the outlook: the strongest event in 2025 reached only 8.8 in Kamchatka, while 2026 activity through mid-September has peaked at 7.8. With roughly three months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and continuous USGS monitoring showing no anomalous strain accumulation capable of producing such an extreme event, trader consensus at 98.8% for “No” reflects these physical constraints. The primary residual uncertainty involves potential magnitude revisions of a borderline megathrust rupture or an extraordinarily rare non-tectonic trigger such as a large asteroid impact, though neither aligns with current observational data or historical precedent.