Elevated tornado activity through mid-September 2026, with over 1,200 confirmed reports and preliminary counts exceeding 1,400 according to Storm Prediction Center data, underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds for 1,250 or more U.S. tornadoes this year. This pace surpasses the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events, driven by above-normal counts in the Midwest and Plains amid favorable atmospheric conditions. Official National Weather Service surveys continue to validate reports, reducing uncertainty in final tallies. A markedly below-average fall and winter period, or substantial downward revisions during verification, represents the main realistic path to a lower total, though current trends and remaining seasonal climatology make such outcomes unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.4%
1200〜1249 4.3%
1100〜1149 3.4%
$83,253 Vol.
$83,253 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
<1%
950〜999
<1%
1000〜1049
<1%
1050〜1099
1%
1100〜1149
3%
1150〜1199
4%
1200〜1249
4%
1250以上
91%
1250以上 91%
1150〜1199 4.4%
1200〜1249 4.3%
1100〜1149 3.4%
$83,253 Vol.
$83,253 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
$23,876 Vol.
<1%
950〜999
$3,761 Vol.
<1%
1000〜1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050〜1099
$9,319 Vol.
1%
1100〜1149
$3,378 Vol.
3%
1150〜1199
$4,202 Vol.
4%
1200〜1249
$16,073 Vol.
4%
1250以上
$19,192 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado activity through mid-September 2026, with over 1,200 confirmed reports and preliminary counts exceeding 1,400 according to Storm Prediction Center data, underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds for 1,250 or more U.S. tornadoes this year. This pace surpasses the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events, driven by above-normal counts in the Midwest and Plains amid favorable atmospheric conditions. Official National Weather Service surveys continue to validate reports, reducing uncertainty in final tallies. A markedly below-average fall and winter period, or substantial downward revisions during verification, represents the main realistic path to a lower total, though current trends and remaining seasonal climatology make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$83,253終了日
2027/01/11マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado activity through mid-September 2026, with over 1,200 confirmed reports and preliminary counts exceeding 1,400 according to Storm Prediction Center data, underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds for 1,250 or more U.S. tornadoes this year. This pace surpasses the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events, driven by above-normal counts in the Midwest and Plains amid favorable atmospheric conditions. Official National Weather Service surveys continue to validate reports, reducing uncertainty in final tallies. A markedly below-average fall and winter period, or substantial downward revisions during verification, represents the main realistic path to a lower total, though current trends and remaining seasonal climatology make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$83,253終了日
2027/01/11マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47de9d...Elevated tornado activity through mid-September 2026, with over 1,200 confirmed reports and preliminary counts exceeding 1,400 according to Storm Prediction Center data, underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds for 1,250 or more U.S. tornadoes this year. This pace surpasses the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300 events, driven by above-normal counts in the Midwest and Plains amid favorable atmospheric conditions. Official National Weather Service surveys continue to validate reports, reducing uncertainty in final tallies. A markedly below-average fall and winter period, or substantial downward revisions during verification, represents the main realistic path to a lower total, though current trends and remaining seasonal climatology make such outcomes unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問