**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.**
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
音量
$202,895終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.**
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$202,895終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問