The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has reached approximately $1.8–2.0 trillion through the first 11 months, on pace for a full-year total near or above $2.1 trillion according to Congressional Budget Office estimates—higher than the prior year in multiple reports. Persistent drivers include rising mandatory outlays on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid amid demographic trends, plus sharply higher interest payments on the national debt now exceeding $40 trillion. Revenue gains from earlier tariff actions were offset by Supreme Court-mandated refunds exceeding $160 billion, while recent tax legislation and appropriations have added net costs without offsetting reductions. Administration officials have signaled fiscal consolidation efforts ahead of the November 2026 midterms, yet no enacted measures have produced the scale of spending restraint or revenue increases needed to reverse the trajectory before calendar 2027. These structural pressures underpin trader expectations that the annual deficit will not decline in the remaining period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has reached approximately $1.8–2.0 trillion through the first 11 months, on pace for a full-year total near or above $2.1 trillion according to Congressional Budget Office estimates—higher than the prior year in multiple reports. Persistent drivers include rising mandatory outlays on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid amid demographic trends, plus sharply higher interest payments on the national debt now exceeding $40 trillion. Revenue gains from earlier tariff actions were offset by Supreme Court-mandated refunds exceeding $160 billion, while recent tax legislation and appropriations have added net costs without offsetting reductions. Administration officials have signaled fiscal consolidation efforts ahead of the November 2026 midterms, yet no enacted measures have produced the scale of spending restraint or revenue increases needed to reverse the trajectory before calendar 2027. These structural pressures underpin trader expectations that the annual deficit will not decline in the remaining period.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$3,076Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has reached approximately $1.8–2.0 trillion through the first 11 months, on pace for a full-year total near or above $2.1 trillion according to Congressional Budget Office estimates—higher than the prior year in multiple reports. Persistent drivers include rising mandatory outlays on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid amid demographic trends, plus sharply higher interest payments on the national debt now exceeding $40 trillion. Revenue gains from earlier tariff actions were offset by Supreme Court-mandated refunds exceeding $160 billion, while recent tax legislation and appropriations have added net costs without offsetting reductions. Administration officials have signaled fiscal consolidation efforts ahead of the November 2026 midterms, yet no enacted measures have produced the scale of spending restraint or revenue increases needed to reverse the trajectory before calendar 2027. These structural pressures underpin trader expectations that the annual deficit will not decline in the remaining period.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$3,076Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 has reached approximately $1.8–2.0 trillion through the first 11 months, on pace for a full-year total near or above $2.1 trillion according to Congressional Budget Office estimates—higher than the prior year in multiple reports. Persistent drivers include rising mandatory outlays on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid amid demographic trends, plus sharply higher interest payments on the national debt now exceeding $40 trillion. Revenue gains from earlier tariff actions were offset by Supreme Court-mandated refunds exceeding $160 billion, while recent tax legislation and appropriations have added net costs without offsetting reductions. Administration officials have signaled fiscal consolidation efforts ahead of the November 2026 midterms, yet no enacted measures have produced the scale of spending restraint or revenue increases needed to reverse the trajectory before calendar 2027. These structural pressures underpin trader expectations that the annual deficit will not decline in the remaining period.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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