**Trump has repeatedly floated tariff-funded dividends—most recently a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to adult citizens if Republicans retain Congress after the November 2026 midterms—but no such program has been enacted.** Earlier pledges for roughly $2,000 payments, discussed in late 2025 with potential mid-2026 rollout, never advanced; a related June 2026 Polymarket market resolved No. Tariff revenue remains far below the scale needed. Net customs receipts totaled around $195 billion in fiscal 2025 and are projected lower in 2026, while a broad $5,000 payment would cost roughly $1.2–1.25 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities and triggered substantial refunds to importers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that options are under review, including possible executive or legislative paths, but no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or formal program has been implemented. These fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints underpin trader consensus that creation by the December 31, 2026 deadline is highly unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trump has repeatedly floated tariff-funded dividends—most recently a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to adult citizens if Republicans retain Congress after the November 2026 midterms—but no such program has been enacted.** Earlier pledges for roughly $2,000 payments, discussed in late 2025 with potential mid-2026 rollout, never advanced; a related June 2026 Polymarket market resolved No.
Tariff revenue remains far below the scale needed. Net customs receipts totaled around $195 billion in fiscal 2025 and are projected lower in 2026, while a broad $5,000 payment would cost roughly $1.2–1.25 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities and triggered substantial refunds to importers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that options are under review, including possible executive or legislative paths, but no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or formal program has been implemented. These fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints underpin trader consensus that creation by the December 31, 2026 deadline is highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volume
$3,014Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trump has repeatedly floated tariff-funded dividends—most recently a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to adult citizens if Republicans retain Congress after the November 2026 midterms—but no such program has been enacted.** Earlier pledges for roughly $2,000 payments, discussed in late 2025 with potential mid-2026 rollout, never advanced; a related June 2026 Polymarket market resolved No.
Tariff revenue remains far below the scale needed. Net customs receipts totaled around $195 billion in fiscal 2025 and are projected lower in 2026, while a broad $5,000 payment would cost roughly $1.2–1.25 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities and triggered substantial refunds to importers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that options are under review, including possible executive or legislative paths, but no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or formal program has been implemented. These fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints underpin trader consensus that creation by the December 31, 2026 deadline is highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,014Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trump has repeatedly floated tariff-funded dividends—most recently a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to adult citizens if Republicans retain Congress after the November 2026 midterms—but no such program has been enacted.** Earlier pledges for roughly $2,000 payments, discussed in late 2025 with potential mid-2026 rollout, never advanced; a related June 2026 Polymarket market resolved No. Tariff revenue remains far below the scale needed. Net customs receipts totaled around $195 billion in fiscal 2025 and are projected lower in 2026, while a broad $5,000 payment would cost roughly $1.2–1.25 trillion. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities and triggered substantial refunds to importers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that options are under review, including possible executive or legislative paths, but no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or formal program has been implemented. These fiscal, legal, and procedural constraints underpin trader consensus that creation by the December 31, 2026 deadline is highly unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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