Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets price Democratic House gains at roughly 70-85%, which would shift committee and floor scheduling authority to the opposition starting in January 2027. Multiple Democratic resolutions have already been introduced in the current Congress, including H.Res. 1486 in August 2026, citing issues such as alleged abuse of power and foreign policy conduct. Traders view these procedural shifts, combined with base pressure on incoming leadership, as sufficient for House passage even if Senate conviction remains improbable given historical patterns and required supermajorities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTrump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Trump sarà messo sotto accusa prima della fine del suo mandato?
Sì
68% probabilità
$102,057 Vol.
$102,057 Vol.
19 gen 2029
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
68% probabilità
$102,057 Vol.
$102,057 Vol.
19 gen 2029
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets price Democratic House gains at roughly 70-85%, which would shift committee and floor scheduling authority to the opposition starting in January 2027. Multiple Democratic resolutions have already been introduced in the current Congress, including H.Res. 1486 in August 2026, citing issues such as alleged abuse of power and foreign policy conduct. Traders view these procedural shifts, combined with base pressure on incoming leadership, as sufficient for House passage even if Senate conviction remains improbable given historical patterns and required supermajorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$102,057Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets price Democratic House gains at roughly 70-85%, which would shift committee and floor scheduling authority to the opposition starting in January 2027. Multiple Democratic resolutions have already been introduced in the current Congress, including H.Res. 1486 in August 2026, citing issues such as alleged abuse of power and foreign policy conduct. Traders view these procedural shifts, combined with base pressure on incoming leadership, as sufficient for House passage even if Senate conviction remains improbable given historical patterns and required supermajorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$102,057Data di fine
20 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Democrats’ strong positioning to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms stands as the primary driver behind the 67.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets price Democratic House gains at roughly 70-85%, which would shift committee and floor scheduling authority to the opposition starting in January 2027. Multiple Democratic resolutions have already been introduced in the current Congress, including H.Res. 1486 in August 2026, citing issues such as alleged abuse of power and foreign policy conduct. Traders view these procedural shifts, combined with base pressure on incoming leadership, as sufficient for House passage even if Senate conviction remains improbable given historical patterns and required supermajorities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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