**Trader consensus reflects the U.S. Constitution’s natural-born citizen requirement, which bars Elon Musk—born in South Africa—from eligibility for the presidency.** Musk has repeatedly stated he has no interest in seeking the office and prefers focusing on private-sector technology and space initiatives. Recent political activity, including support for Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms and reported interest in backing other figures for 2028, aligns with this positioning rather than any personal candidacy. Brief consideration of a third-party effort in 2025 did not extend to Musk himself entering the race. While the 98.5% implied probability on “No” captures this durable barrier, an official announcement by Musk would still resolve the market to “Yes” if issued before the end of 2026, though credible reporting shows no such plans and highlights the constitutional obstacle as the dominant factor.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
1% probabilità
$26,169 Vol.
$26,169 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$26,169 Vol.
$26,169 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus reflects the U.S. Constitution’s natural-born citizen requirement, which bars Elon Musk—born in South Africa—from eligibility for the presidency.** Musk has repeatedly stated he has no interest in seeking the office and prefers focusing on private-sector technology and space initiatives. Recent political activity, including support for Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms and reported interest in backing other figures for 2028, aligns with this positioning rather than any personal candidacy. Brief consideration of a third-party effort in 2025 did not extend to Musk himself entering the race. While the 98.5% implied probability on “No” captures this durable barrier, an official announcement by Musk would still resolve the market to “Yes” if issued before the end of 2026, though credible reporting shows no such plans and highlights the constitutional obstacle as the dominant factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$26,169Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus reflects the U.S. Constitution’s natural-born citizen requirement, which bars Elon Musk—born in South Africa—from eligibility for the presidency.** Musk has repeatedly stated he has no interest in seeking the office and prefers focusing on private-sector technology and space initiatives. Recent political activity, including support for Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms and reported interest in backing other figures for 2028, aligns with this positioning rather than any personal candidacy. Brief consideration of a third-party effort in 2025 did not extend to Musk himself entering the race. While the 98.5% implied probability on “No” captures this durable barrier, an official announcement by Musk would still resolve the market to “Yes” if issued before the end of 2026, though credible reporting shows no such plans and highlights the constitutional obstacle as the dominant factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,169Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus reflects the U.S. Constitution’s natural-born citizen requirement, which bars Elon Musk—born in South Africa—from eligibility for the presidency.** Musk has repeatedly stated he has no interest in seeking the office and prefers focusing on private-sector technology and space initiatives. Recent political activity, including support for Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms and reported interest in backing other figures for 2028, aligns with this positioning rather than any personal candidacy. Brief consideration of a third-party effort in 2025 did not extend to Musk himself entering the race. While the 98.5% implied probability on “No” captures this durable barrier, an official announcement by Musk would still resolve the market to “Yes” if issued before the end of 2026, though credible reporting shows no such plans and highlights the constitutional obstacle as the dominant factor.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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