Isabelle Blais of the Parti Québécois holds the leading position in Maskinongé at 60% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Simon Allaire of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 35.5%, with minor-party candidates trailing far behind. Recent riding projections show the PQ ahead on projected vote share, reflecting broader provincial trends where the party has gained ground ahead of the October 5 general election. Allaire reversed an earlier decision not to seek re-election and secured the CAQ nomination after the campaign launch in late August. Blais, a regional actress who won her party’s nomination earlier in the year, benefits from name recognition and alignment with current PQ momentum in the Mauricie area. Advance voting begins September 27–28, with final candidate lists confirmed by mid-September.