Incumbent Sol Zanetti of Québec solidaire leads trader consensus for the Jean-Lesage seat in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. Recent aggregates from 338Canada and Qc125 project a toss-up between Zanetti and Parti québécois candidate Claude Villeneuve at roughly 29 percent and 28 percent support respectively, inside the margin of error on the redistributed boundaries, while Conservative candidate Nancy Joannette registers around 21 percent. Zanetti’s elevation as QS co-spokesperson in late 2025 has increased his local visibility during the campaign that began after the August 27 writ. The riding’s history of narrow QS margins and potential vote splitting among sovereigntist and conservative options contribute to the current implied probabilities, with resolution tied to official Élections Québec results.