**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 19 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Hong Kong il 19 settembre?
27°C 100.0%
21°C o inferiore <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$20,099 Vol.
$20,099 Vol.
19 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Sì
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C o superiore
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C o inferiore <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$20,099 Vol.
$20,099 Vol.
19 set 2026
21°C o inferiore
$41 Vol.
No
22°C
$31 Vol.
No
23°C
$46 Vol.
No
24°C
$117 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,570 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,069 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,621 Vol.
Sì
28°C
$2,282 Vol.
No
29°C
$41 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,143 Vol.
No
31°C o superiore
$1,137 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20,099Data di fine
19 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,099Data di fine
19 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 27°C minimum on September 19, 2026, reflects the official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) daily minimum temperature measurement at the primary station.** Late-summer subtropical conditions, including persistent high pressure, light easterly winds, and mostly clear skies, produced typical overnight radiative cooling without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. This aligns with climatological expectations for mid-to-late September, when daily minima often range 24–26°C but can reach the upper 20s under stable anticyclonic flow. Traders priced in the verified observation rather than forecasts, as resolution depends on the HKO’s published absolute daily minimum. Only an unreported station discrepancy or post-event data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are rare for this well-monitored site.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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