Traders see the 30–32°C outcomes clustered near 70% combined implied probability because short-range models show Manila’s September 11 maximum temperature hovering near the long-term climatological mean of 31°C. Key variables include the strength of the southwest monsoon moisture flux, which modulates daytime heating and cloud cover, and the urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C in central districts. PAGASA and global ensemble guidance currently favor partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon showers that cap extreme highs, while drier pockets in the guidance support brief 32°C spikes. Resolution hinges on the official PAGASA synoptic observation at the Manila synoptic station; any shift in the 24-hour forecast toward stronger convection or clearer skies would quickly reprice the 29°C and 33°C+ tails.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Manila on September 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 11?
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
16%
30°C
26%
31°C
26%
32°C
18%
33°C
7%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 26%
31°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
$221 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$354 Vol.
1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
2%
27°C
$89 Vol.
3%
28°C
$52 Vol.
8%
29°C
$151 Vol.
16%
30°C
$598 Vol.
26%
31°C
$148 Vol.
26%
32°C
$141 Vol.
18%
33°C
$22 Vol.
7%
34°C or higher
$46 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 30–32°C outcomes clustered near 70% combined implied probability because short-range models show Manila’s September 11 maximum temperature hovering near the long-term climatological mean of 31°C. Key variables include the strength of the southwest monsoon moisture flux, which modulates daytime heating and cloud cover, and the urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C in central districts. PAGASA and global ensemble guidance currently favor partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon showers that cap extreme highs, while drier pockets in the guidance support brief 32°C spikes. Resolution hinges on the official PAGASA synoptic observation at the Manila synoptic station; any shift in the 24-hour forecast toward stronger convection or clearer skies would quickly reprice the 29°C and 33°C+ tails.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,844Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 30–32°C outcomes clustered near 70% combined implied probability because short-range models show Manila’s September 11 maximum temperature hovering near the long-term climatological mean of 31°C. Key variables include the strength of the southwest monsoon moisture flux, which modulates daytime heating and cloud cover, and the urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C in central districts. PAGASA and global ensemble guidance currently favor partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon showers that cap extreme highs, while drier pockets in the guidance support brief 32°C spikes. Resolution hinges on the official PAGASA synoptic observation at the Manila synoptic station; any shift in the 24-hour forecast toward stronger convection or clearer skies would quickly reprice the 29°C and 33°C+ tails.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,844Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 30–32°C outcomes clustered near 70% combined implied probability because short-range models show Manila’s September 11 maximum temperature hovering near the long-term climatological mean of 31°C. Key variables include the strength of the southwest monsoon moisture flux, which modulates daytime heating and cloud cover, and the urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C in central districts. PAGASA and global ensemble guidance currently favor partly cloudy conditions with isolated afternoon showers that cap extreme highs, while drier pockets in the guidance support brief 32°C spikes. Resolution hinges on the official PAGASA synoptic observation at the Manila synoptic station; any shift in the 24-hour forecast toward stronger convection or clearer skies would quickly reprice the 29°C and 33°C+ tails.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan