Trader consensus on no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 97% implied probability reflects the virus's established biology and the rapid containment of the 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius. That event produced only 13 cases and three deaths through limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods ended by July. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm hantaviruses primarily transmit via rodent excreta aerosols, with Andes virus as the sole strain showing inefficient human-to-human chains; historical outbreaks remain localized rather than pandemic-scale. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or undetected superspreader events could theoretically shift dynamics, current surveillance shows no such developments, aligning with the market's high confidence in containment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3% peluang
$18,130,395 Vol.
$18,130,395 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$18,130,395 Vol.
$18,130,395 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 97% implied probability reflects the virus's established biology and the rapid containment of the 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius. That event produced only 13 cases and three deaths through limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods ended by July. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm hantaviruses primarily transmit via rodent excreta aerosols, with Andes virus as the sole strain showing inefficient human-to-human chains; historical outbreaks remain localized rather than pandemic-scale. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or undetected superspreader events could theoretically shift dynamics, current surveillance shows no such developments, aligning with the market's high confidence in containment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$18,130,395Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 97% implied probability reflects the virus's established biology and the rapid containment of the 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius. That event produced only 13 cases and three deaths through limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods ended by July. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm hantaviruses primarily transmit via rodent excreta aerosols, with Andes virus as the sole strain showing inefficient human-to-human chains; historical outbreaks remain localized rather than pandemic-scale. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or undetected superspreader events could theoretically shift dynamics, current surveillance shows no such developments, aligning with the market's high confidence in containment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,130,395Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 97% implied probability reflects the virus's established biology and the rapid containment of the 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius. That event produced only 13 cases and three deaths through limited person-to-person spread requiring prolonged close contact, with no sustained community transmission after quarantine and 42-day monitoring periods ended by July. Official data from WHO, CDC, and ECDC confirm hantaviruses primarily transmit via rodent excreta aerosols, with Andes virus as the sole strain showing inefficient human-to-human chains; historical outbreaks remain localized rather than pandemic-scale. While a mutation enhancing transmissibility or undetected superspreader events could theoretically shift dynamics, current surveillance shows no such developments, aligning with the market's high confidence in containment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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