California's 12th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the top-two primary on June 2 producing an all-Democratic matchup between incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+39, combined with California's recent legislative redistricting under Proposition 50, has eliminated meaningful Republican competition and produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflects the absence of viable opposition and the structural advantages of incumbency in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat. A Democratic hold could still face disruption from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic turnout shift, though such outcomes appear remote given current conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-12 House Election Winner
CA-12 House Election Winner
$44,263 Vol.
$44,263 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$44,263 Vol.
$44,263 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,011 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$17,251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the top-two primary on June 2 producing an all-Democratic matchup between incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+39, combined with California's recent legislative redistricting under Proposition 50, has eliminated meaningful Republican competition and produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflects the absence of viable opposition and the structural advantages of incumbency in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat. A Democratic hold could still face disruption from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic turnout shift, though such outcomes appear remote given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$44,263Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the top-two primary on June 2 producing an all-Democratic matchup between incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+39, combined with California's recent legislative redistricting under Proposition 50, has eliminated meaningful Republican competition and produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflects the absence of viable opposition and the structural advantages of incumbency in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat. A Democratic hold could still face disruption from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic turnout shift, though such outcomes appear remote given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,263Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the top-two primary on June 2 producing an all-Democratic matchup between incumbent Lateefah Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce. The district's Partisan Voter Index of D+39, combined with California's recent legislative redistricting under Proposition 50, has eliminated meaningful Republican competition and produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Trader consensus reflects the absence of viable opposition and the structural advantages of incumbency in a heavily Democratic Bay Area seat. A Democratic hold could still face disruption from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic turnout shift, though such outcomes appear remote given current conditions.
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