Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems from the lack of any qualifying bolide through mid-September and alignment with NASA CNEOS monitoring data. Objects delivering 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy typically involve 5–10 meter meteoroids, events that historical fireball records show occur at a base rate of roughly 0.5–0.7 per year. Recent predicted impactors, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, were far smaller and produced no such airburst. Continuous surveillance by JPL and ESA has identified no objects on collision courses capable of meeting the threshold, while model consensus and the absence of alerts through the first eight-plus months support the current market-implied odds, though undetected small bodies retain some residual uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
24% peluang
$313,826 Vol.
$313,826 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
24% peluang
$313,826 Vol.
$313,826 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems from the lack of any qualifying bolide through mid-September and alignment with NASA CNEOS monitoring data. Objects delivering 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy typically involve 5–10 meter meteoroids, events that historical fireball records show occur at a base rate of roughly 0.5–0.7 per year. Recent predicted impactors, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, were far smaller and produced no such airburst. Continuous surveillance by JPL and ESA has identified no objects on collision courses capable of meeting the threshold, while model consensus and the absence of alerts through the first eight-plus months support the current market-implied odds, though undetected small bodies retain some residual uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$313,826Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems from the lack of any qualifying bolide through mid-September and alignment with NASA CNEOS monitoring data. Objects delivering 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy typically involve 5–10 meter meteoroids, events that historical fireball records show occur at a base rate of roughly 0.5–0.7 per year. Recent predicted impactors, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, were far smaller and produced no such airburst. Continuous surveillance by JPL and ESA has identified no objects on collision courses capable of meeting the threshold, while model consensus and the absence of alerts through the first eight-plus months support the current market-implied odds, though undetected small bodies retain some residual uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$313,826Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75.5% for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 stems from the lack of any qualifying bolide through mid-September and alignment with NASA CNEOS monitoring data. Objects delivering 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy typically involve 5–10 meter meteoroids, events that historical fireball records show occur at a base rate of roughly 0.5–0.7 per year. Recent predicted impactors, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, were far smaller and produced no such airburst. Continuous surveillance by JPL and ESA has identified no objects on collision courses capable of meeting the threshold, while model consensus and the absence of alerts through the first eight-plus months support the current market-implied odds, though undetected small bodies retain some residual uncertainty for the remainder of the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan