Provisional Met Office data confirm summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a national mean temperature of 16.5°C—0.4°C above the 2025 record—driven by repeated heatwaves that produced nine days above 35°C and 55 days above 28°C. Persistent high-pressure systems delivered exceptional sunshine and dryness, while official attribution analysis indicates human-induced climate change made this level of warmth around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. These verified observations from the HadUK-Grid dataset underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. Final verification could still adjust rankings marginally if additional station data emerge, though current figures already place 2026 well ahead of historical benchmarks like 1976.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
98% peluang
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Sep 30, 2026
98% peluang
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Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data confirm summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a national mean temperature of 16.5°C—0.4°C above the 2025 record—driven by repeated heatwaves that produced nine days above 35°C and 55 days above 28°C. Persistent high-pressure systems delivered exceptional sunshine and dryness, while official attribution analysis indicates human-induced climate change made this level of warmth around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. These verified observations from the HadUK-Grid dataset underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. Final verification could still adjust rankings marginally if additional station data emerge, though current figures already place 2026 well ahead of historical benchmarks like 1976.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,704Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data confirm summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a national mean temperature of 16.5°C—0.4°C above the 2025 record—driven by repeated heatwaves that produced nine days above 35°C and 55 days above 28°C. Persistent high-pressure systems delivered exceptional sunshine and dryness, while official attribution analysis indicates human-induced climate change made this level of warmth around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. These verified observations from the HadUK-Grid dataset underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. Final verification could still adjust rankings marginally if additional station data emerge, though current figures already place 2026 well ahead of historical benchmarks like 1976.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,704Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETProvisional Met Office data confirm summer 2026 as the UK's warmest on record, with a national mean temperature of 16.5°C—0.4°C above the 2025 record—driven by repeated heatwaves that produced nine days above 35°C and 55 days above 28°C. Persistent high-pressure systems delivered exceptional sunshine and dryness, while official attribution analysis indicates human-induced climate change made this level of warmth around 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. These verified observations from the HadUK-Grid dataset underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. Final verification could still adjust rankings marginally if additional station data emerge, though current figures already place 2026 well ahead of historical benchmarks like 1976.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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