SpaceX's progress on Starship V3 remains in the suborbital testing phase as of late September 2026, with Flight 13 in July delivering the first intact ship recovery and Starlink V3 deployment but only a hard booster splashdown. Traders see the 75% implied probability for "No" as reflecting the compressed timeline to full reusability—requiring an orbital flight on the imminent Flight 14, a successful tower catch of the upper stage, and at least one reflight of a flown ship—before year-end. Elon Musk has targeted ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027, yet repeated delays in regulatory approvals, heat shield performance, and Raptor relight reliability continue to push milestones. Upcoming catalysts like the first orbital attempt and tower-catch tests will likely determine whether sentiment shifts before resolution.