Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 U.S. tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term annual average near 1,200 and the 30-year January–April baseline. Elevated spring and summer activity, including record preliminary reports in Illinois and strong Midwest outbreaks, has driven the pace, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring convective setups. Typical September–December contributions range from 150–250 events depending on late-season patterns and any tropical cyclone influences, supporting trader consensus around the 1250+ bracket at 88.5% implied probability. Upcoming NWS verification and final SPC tallies will refine totals, though current trends indicate limited downside risk absent an unusually quiet fall.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.1%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.2%
1150–1199 4.5%
1100–1149 3.1%
$82,166 Vol.
$82,166 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,728 Vol.
1%
950–999
$3,621 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
1%
1100–1149
$3,254 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
5%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
5%
1250+
$18,941 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 U.S. tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term annual average near 1,200 and the 30-year January–April baseline. Elevated spring and summer activity, including record preliminary reports in Illinois and strong Midwest outbreaks, has driven the pace, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring convective setups. Typical September–December contributions range from 150–250 events depending on late-season patterns and any tropical cyclone influences, supporting trader consensus around the 1250+ bracket at 88.5% implied probability. Upcoming NWS verification and final SPC tallies will refine totals, though current trends indicate limited downside risk absent an unusually quiet fall.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$82,166Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 U.S. tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term annual average near 1,200 and the 30-year January–April baseline. Elevated spring and summer activity, including record preliminary reports in Illinois and strong Midwest outbreaks, has driven the pace, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring convective setups. Typical September–December contributions range from 150–250 events depending on late-season patterns and any tropical cyclone influences, supporting trader consensus around the 1250+ bracket at 88.5% implied probability. Upcoming NWS verification and final SPC tallies will refine totals, though current trends indicate limited downside risk absent an unusually quiet fall.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$82,166Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 U.S. tornadoes through early September 2026, well above the long-term annual average near 1,200 and the 30-year January–April baseline. Elevated spring and summer activity, including record preliminary reports in Illinois and strong Midwest outbreaks, has driven the pace, consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions favoring convective setups. Typical September–December contributions range from 150–250 events depending on late-season patterns and any tropical cyclone influences, supporting trader consensus around the 1250+ bracket at 88.5% implied probability. Upcoming NWS verification and final SPC tallies will refine totals, though current trends indicate limited downside risk absent an unusually quiet fall.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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