NASA’s February 2026 Artemis program overhaul, which redesignated Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Starship and Blue Moon Human Landing System prototypes rather than a surface mission, underpins the 99.2% market-implied odds against a 2026 crewed landing. Artemis II’s successful April 2026 crewed lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS performance but left the unproven landers—facing cryogenic propulsion, refueling, and schedule setbacks highlighted in the March 2026 NASA Inspector General report—still years from operational readiness. With only months remaining in 2026 and no alternative programs positioned for an immediate attempt, traders see virtually no pathway to resolution criteria. While regulatory or funding shifts could accelerate later milestones, they cannot compress the required hardware certification and flight testing into the current calendar year.