**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
13% peluang
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% peluang
$246,041 Vol.
$246,041 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,041Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,041Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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