**Yabloko’s removal from the September 2026 State Duma ballot by Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 drives the near-certain trader consensus against clearing the 5% proportional threshold.** The Central Election Commission had registered the party’s federal list in late July, but a lawsuit from the Rodina party led to the ruling, upheld on appeal with further challenges facing slim prospects before voting begins on September 18–20. Yabloko has not exceeded the threshold in national elections since 1999 and typically polls at 1–2% amid administrative barriers, limited media access, and documented controls favoring established parties. With the nationwide list excluded, the party cannot receive proportional votes, leaving only isolated single-mandate candidacies that do not affect the list threshold. Remaining legal or procedural avenues appear unlikely to restore ballot access in time.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlections en Russie : Yabloko franchit le seuil de la Douma ?
Élections en Russie : Yabloko franchit le seuil de la Douma ?
Oui
<1% chance
$615,437 Vol.
$615,437 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$615,437 Vol.
$615,437 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s removal from the September 2026 State Duma ballot by Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 drives the near-certain trader consensus against clearing the 5% proportional threshold.** The Central Election Commission had registered the party’s federal list in late July, but a lawsuit from the Rodina party led to the ruling, upheld on appeal with further challenges facing slim prospects before voting begins on September 18–20. Yabloko has not exceeded the threshold in national elections since 1999 and typically polls at 1–2% amid administrative barriers, limited media access, and documented controls favoring established parties. With the nationwide list excluded, the party cannot receive proportional votes, leaving only isolated single-mandate candidacies that do not affect the list threshold. Remaining legal or procedural avenues appear unlikely to restore ballot access in time.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$615,437Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko’s removal from the September 2026 State Duma ballot by Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 drives the near-certain trader consensus against clearing the 5% proportional threshold.** The Central Election Commission had registered the party’s federal list in late July, but a lawsuit from the Rodina party led to the ruling, upheld on appeal with further challenges facing slim prospects before voting begins on September 18–20. Yabloko has not exceeded the threshold in national elections since 1999 and typically polls at 1–2% amid administrative barriers, limited media access, and documented controls favoring established parties. With the nationwide list excluded, the party cannot receive proportional votes, leaving only isolated single-mandate candidacies that do not affect the list threshold. Remaining legal or procedural avenues appear unlikely to restore ballot access in time.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$615,437Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Yabloko’s removal from the September 2026 State Duma ballot by Russia’s Supreme Court on August 10 drives the near-certain trader consensus against clearing the 5% proportional threshold.** The Central Election Commission had registered the party’s federal list in late July, but a lawsuit from the Rodina party led to the ruling, upheld on appeal with further challenges facing slim prospects before voting begins on September 18–20. Yabloko has not exceeded the threshold in national elections since 1999 and typically polls at 1–2% amid administrative barriers, limited media access, and documented controls favoring established parties. With the nationwide list excluded, the party cannot receive proportional votes, leaving only isolated single-mandate candidacies that do not affect the list threshold. Remaining legal or procedural avenues appear unlikely to restore ballot access in time.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le parti Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP) remportera-t-il au moins un siège lors des prochaines élections à la Douma d'État russe ?
98%
Oui
Élections en Russie : Russie unie gagne-t-elle dans toutes les régions ?
69%
Oui
Le parti Russie unie (ER) obtiendra-t-il le plus de sièges lors des prochaines élections parlementaires russes ?
75%
Oui
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