Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 13th congressional district after defeating five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressive groups. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, evidenced by consistent large margins in prior cycles and forecaster ratings of solid or safe Democratic, drives the market’s 97.3% implied probability for Chevalier in the November general election. Republican nominee Jomo Williams faces structural barriers in a constituency covering upper Manhattan and the northwest Bronx. Late developments that could still shift outcomes remain limited to unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, major scandals, or significant turnout anomalies, none of which have materialized in available reporting.