Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race due to his established position in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters. Ryan benefits from substantial fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand compared with challenger Jacqueline Auringer’s roughly $61,000—along with labor union endorsements and uncontested Democratic primary advancement in June 2026. Auringer, a businesswoman and political newcomer who advanced unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines, faces structural headwinds in a district where Ryan won reelection with 57 percent in 2024. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major campaign finance revelations, national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout, though the election remains months away on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$42,898 Vol.
$42,898 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
6%
$42,898 Vol.
$42,898 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,521 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race due to his established position in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters. Ryan benefits from substantial fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand compared with challenger Jacqueline Auringer’s roughly $61,000—along with labor union endorsements and uncontested Democratic primary advancement in June 2026. Auringer, a businesswoman and political newcomer who advanced unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines, faces structural headwinds in a district where Ryan won reelection with 57 percent in 2024. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major campaign finance revelations, national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout, though the election remains months away on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,898Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race due to his established position in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters. Ryan benefits from substantial fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand compared with challenger Jacqueline Auringer’s roughly $61,000—along with labor union endorsements and uncontested Democratic primary advancement in June 2026. Auringer, a businesswoman and political newcomer who advanced unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines, faces structural headwinds in a district where Ryan won reelection with 57 percent in 2024. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major campaign finance revelations, national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout, though the election remains months away on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,898Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in the NY-18 House race due to his established position in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which carries a Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters. Ryan benefits from substantial fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand compared with challenger Jacqueline Auringer’s roughly $61,000—along with labor union endorsements and uncontested Democratic primary advancement in June 2026. Auringer, a businesswoman and political newcomer who advanced unopposed on the Republican and Conservative lines, faces structural headwinds in a district where Ryan won reelection with 57 percent in 2024. A July poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major campaign finance revelations, national partisan shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout, though the election remains months away on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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