Recent polling for Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, reflecting steady backing from its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate amid debates over military conscription exemptions and yeshiva funding. Internal party adjustments, including leadership changes in the Degel HaTorah faction tied to draft disputes, have introduced minor uncertainty without shifting the overall base. Traders see the 5–7 percent band as most probable because Haredi turnout and bloc positioning with Shas remain stable, while broader coalition dynamics and any last-minute exemption legislation could nudge results toward the lower or upper edge of that range. Historical patterns show limited volatility for the party outside major religious-policy shocks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour6-7 % 37%
5 à 6 % 33%
<5 % 8%
7-8 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<5 %
8%
5 à 6 %
36%
6-7 %
44%
7-8 %
7%
8%+
2%
6-7 % 37%
5 à 6 % 33%
<5 % 8%
7-8 % 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 nov. 2026
<5 %
$334 Vol.
8%
5 à 6 %
$324 Vol.
36%
6-7 %
$224 Vol.
44%
7-8 %
$174 Vol.
7%
8%+
$290 Vol.
2%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, reflecting steady backing from its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate amid debates over military conscription exemptions and yeshiva funding. Internal party adjustments, including leadership changes in the Degel HaTorah faction tied to draft disputes, have introduced minor uncertainty without shifting the overall base. Traders see the 5–7 percent band as most probable because Haredi turnout and bloc positioning with Shas remain stable, while broader coalition dynamics and any last-minute exemption legislation could nudge results toward the lower or upper edge of that range. Historical patterns show limited volatility for the party outside major religious-policy shocks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,346Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, reflecting steady backing from its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate amid debates over military conscription exemptions and yeshiva funding. Internal party adjustments, including leadership changes in the Degel HaTorah faction tied to draft disputes, have introduced minor uncertainty without shifting the overall base. Traders see the 5–7 percent band as most probable because Haredi turnout and bloc positioning with Shas remain stable, while broader coalition dynamics and any last-minute exemption legislation could nudge results toward the lower or upper edge of that range. Historical patterns show limited volatility for the party outside major religious-policy shocks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,346Date de fin
27 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places United Torah Judaism near 7–8 seats, reflecting steady backing from its core Ashkenazi Haredi electorate amid debates over military conscription exemptions and yeshiva funding. Internal party adjustments, including leadership changes in the Degel HaTorah faction tied to draft disputes, have introduced minor uncertainty without shifting the overall base. Traders see the 5–7 percent band as most probable because Haredi turnout and bloc positioning with Shas remain stable, while broader coalition dynamics and any last-minute exemption legislation could nudge results toward the lower or upper edge of that range. Historical patterns show limited volatility for the party outside major religious-policy shocks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Judaïsme unifié de la Torah (UTJ) remportera-t-il 7 à 8 sièges aux élections législatives de 2026 ?
69%
Oui
Yisrael Beiteinu remportera-t-il 6 à 7 % des voix aux élections à la Knesset de 2026 ?
44%
Oui
La Liste commune obtiendra-t-elle entre 6,5 et 7,5 % des voix aux élections de la Knesset de 2026 ?
37%
Oui
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