**The tight race between DFL nominee Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, now polling as a statistical tie or narrow Democratic edge with roughly 12% undecided, is the main factor supporting trader focus on the 2.6M–2.9M turnout range.** Recent September polling shows the contest tightening from earlier post-primary leads, coinciding with early voting beginning September 18 and concurrent high-profile races for governor and state legislature. Minnesota’s established high-turnout patterns—76% in 2024 and 60% in 2022—combined with same-day registration, widespread mail and early voting access, and elevated primary absentee numbers point to strong mobilization in this competitive environment. The leading 2.6M–2.75M bin at 45.5% reflects trader consensus on these structural and campaign dynamics rather than any single late-breaking event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection au Sénat du Minnesota : participation
Élection au Sénat du Minnesota : participation
2,6M-2,75M 46%
2,75M-2,9M 35%
2,45M-2,6M 10%
2,9M-3,05M 7%
<2M
3%
2M-2,15M
3%
2,15M-2,3M
4%
2,3M-2,45M
3%
2,45M-2,6M
10%
2,6M-2,75M
46%
2,75M-2,9M
35%
2,9M-3,05M
7%
3,05M+
16%
2,6M-2,75M 46%
2,75M-2,9M 35%
2,45M-2,6M 10%
2,9M-3,05M 7%
<2M
3%
2M-2,15M
3%
2,15M-2,3M
4%
2,3M-2,45M
3%
2,45M-2,6M
10%
2,6M-2,75M
46%
2,75M-2,9M
35%
2,9M-3,05M
7%
3,05M+
16%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**The tight race between DFL nominee Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, now polling as a statistical tie or narrow Democratic edge with roughly 12% undecided, is the main factor supporting trader focus on the 2.6M–2.9M turnout range.** Recent September polling shows the contest tightening from earlier post-primary leads, coinciding with early voting beginning September 18 and concurrent high-profile races for governor and state legislature. Minnesota’s established high-turnout patterns—76% in 2024 and 60% in 2022—combined with same-day registration, widespread mail and early voting access, and elevated primary absentee numbers point to strong mobilization in this competitive environment. The leading 2.6M–2.75M bin at 45.5% reflects trader consensus on these structural and campaign dynamics rather than any single late-breaking event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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