**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation, shared alliances with Washington, and mutual caution have contained rivalry despite sharp deterioration in bilateral ties.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israel views Turkish military entrenchment—such as potential air defenses or bases near its border—as a red line, prompting the August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Turkey denies deployment plans, condemns the strikes as destabilizing, and has issued legal actions and rhetoric against Israeli officials, while both governments trade accusations and limit cooperation. Analysts note that NATO membership for Turkey, Israeli restraint against striking Turkish personnel, deconfliction channels involving the U.S. envoy, and personal ties among leaders have so far prevented escalation from proxy competition or strikes into open conflict. Recent statements from officials and observers indicate neither side seeks direct confrontation in the near term, supporting the market's strong consensus against a clash.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Israël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Oui
14% chance
$428,699 Vol.
$428,699 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
14% chance
$428,699 Vol.
$428,699 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation, shared alliances with Washington, and mutual caution have contained rivalry despite sharp deterioration in bilateral ties.**
Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israel views Turkish military entrenchment—such as potential air defenses or bases near its border—as a red line, prompting the August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Turkey denies deployment plans, condemns the strikes as destabilizing, and has issued legal actions and rhetoric against Israeli officials, while both governments trade accusations and limit cooperation.
Analysts note that NATO membership for Turkey, Israeli restraint against striking Turkish personnel, deconfliction channels involving the U.S. envoy, and personal ties among leaders have so far prevented escalation from proxy competition or strikes into open conflict. Recent statements from officials and observers indicate neither side seeks direct confrontation in the near term, supporting the market's strong consensus against a clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$428,699Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation, shared alliances with Washington, and mutual caution have contained rivalry despite sharp deterioration in bilateral ties.**
Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israel views Turkish military entrenchment—such as potential air defenses or bases near its border—as a red line, prompting the August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Turkey denies deployment plans, condemns the strikes as destabilizing, and has issued legal actions and rhetoric against Israeli officials, while both governments trade accusations and limit cooperation.
Analysts note that NATO membership for Turkey, Israeli restraint against striking Turkish personnel, deconfliction channels involving the U.S. envoy, and personal ties among leaders have so far prevented escalation from proxy competition or strikes into open conflict. Recent statements from officials and observers indicate neither side seeks direct confrontation in the near term, supporting the market's strong consensus against a clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$428,699Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation, shared alliances with Washington, and mutual caution have contained rivalry despite sharp deterioration in bilateral ties.** Tensions center on competition for influence in post-Assad Syria, where Israel views Turkish military entrenchment—such as potential air defenses or bases near its border—as a red line, prompting the August 2026 airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Turkey denies deployment plans, condemns the strikes as destabilizing, and has issued legal actions and rhetoric against Israeli officials, while both governments trade accusations and limit cooperation. Analysts note that NATO membership for Turkey, Israeli restraint against striking Turkish personnel, deconfliction channels involving the U.S. envoy, and personal ties among leaders have so far prevented escalation from proxy competition or strikes into open conflict. Recent statements from officials and observers indicate neither side seeks direct confrontation in the near term, supporting the market's strong consensus against a clash.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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