Mojtaba Khamenei has issued written statements on war developments, the economy, and religious occasions since succeeding his father in March 2026 but has made no verified public appearance, video, or audio address in the ensuing six months. Iranian authorities cite security risks tied to the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict and his reported injuries from the February strikes that killed Ali Khamenei. The regime has countered health and absence rumors with undated footage of him in seminary settings, attributed military appointments, and insider accounts of private activities, including a claimed overnight vigil at his father’s shrine. Analysts note a shift toward more collective decision-making involving IRGC figures and the president, reducing pressure for a solo public profile. Resolution of the market hinges on credible confirmation of an in-person or live appearance, with any major diplomatic or ceremonial milestone offering potential catalysts.