**Trader consensus on "No" at 83.5% reflects the limited nature of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the absence of preparations for a full-scale ground invasion.** Since February 2026, U.S. and Israeli operations have centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval actions targeting Iranian military and nuclear-related sites, with sporadic tit-for-tat strikes in the Strait of Hormuz continuing into September. A June memorandum of understanding established a fragile ceasefire framework and 60-day negotiating window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and shipping access, though compliance has been uneven and talks remain strained. President Trump has repeatedly signaled expectations that major hostilities will conclude after the November 2026 midterms while threatening additional strikes on hardened sites, without mobilizing the large ground forces required for an invasion of Iranian territory. Military analysts note that seizing and holding significant Iranian land would demand far more troops and resources than currently deployed in the region, making such an operation highly improbable within the remaining months of 2026.