The post-coup transitional government under Gen. Horta Inta-A Na Man, installed after the disputed November 2025 vote and subsequent military takeover, combined with the August-September 2026 constitutional referendum that passed with roughly 70% support, has created a highly fragmented field for the scheduled December 6, 2026 presidential election. The new charter strengthens presidential appointment and dissolution powers while imposing stricter candidate residency rules and shrinking parliament, sidelining traditional power-sharing and complicating alliances among the listed contenders. Fernando Dias da Costa’s market lead stems from his prior PAIGC-backed positioning, while Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s lower odds reflect his ouster and coalition realignments; the remaining candidates trail due to limited national structures and the absence of major parties like PAIGC from the prior ballot. Consolidation hinges on military endorsements, regional turnout patterns, and post-referendum negotiations ahead of the vote.