Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the October 2 first-round election. Recent Datafolha polling shows her at 40% of first-round intentions, up from 30% earlier in September, while main challengers José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) trail at 17% and 16%. Her position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad center-right coalition that includes the PP, União Brasil, MDB, PL and Republicanos, and improving approval ratings, with 33% rating her administration positively and 55% approving of her performance. Arruda’s support has eroded amid eligibility questions and vote fragmentation among other contenders. These trends have produced the current trader consensus favoring Leão to secure victory either outright or in a likely runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCelina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.8%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
7%
Leandro Grass
3%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.8%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Celina Leão
$9,582 Vol.
83%
Arruda
$1,928 Vol.
7%
Leandro Grass
$1,573 Vol.
3%
Elisson
$543 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$530 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$541 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the October 2 first-round election. Recent Datafolha polling shows her at 40% of first-round intentions, up from 30% earlier in September, while main challengers José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) trail at 17% and 16%. Her position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad center-right coalition that includes the PP, União Brasil, MDB, PL and Republicanos, and improving approval ratings, with 33% rating her administration positively and 55% approving of her performance. Arruda’s support has eroded amid eligibility questions and vote fragmentation among other contenders. These trends have produced the current trader consensus favoring Leão to secure victory either outright or in a likely runoff.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volume
$16,738Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the October 2 first-round election. Recent Datafolha polling shows her at 40% of first-round intentions, up from 30% earlier in September, while main challengers José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) trail at 17% and 16%. Her position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad center-right coalition that includes the PP, União Brasil, MDB, PL and Republicanos, and improving approval ratings, with 33% rating her administration positively and 55% approving of her performance. Arruda’s support has eroded amid eligibility questions and vote fragmentation among other contenders. These trends have produced the current trader consensus favoring Leão to secure victory either outright or in a likely runoff.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,738Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District since March 2026, holds a commanding lead in the October 2 first-round election. Recent Datafolha polling shows her at 40% of first-round intentions, up from 30% earlier in September, while main challengers José Roberto Arruda (PSD) and Leandro Grass (PT) trail at 17% and 16%. Her position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad center-right coalition that includes the PP, União Brasil, MDB, PL and Republicanos, and improving approval ratings, with 33% rating her administration positively and 55% approving of her performance. Arruda’s support has eroded amid eligibility questions and vote fragmentation among other contenders. These trends have produced the current trader consensus favoring Leão to secure victory either outright or in a likely runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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