Lula leads recent first-round polling averages at 38-44% ahead of the October 4 vote, positioning him as the frontrunner to finish first under Brazil’s two-round system, while Flavio Bolsonaro trails at 34-42% as the main right-wing challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register in the low single digits and show no path to topping the field. Trader pricing reflects this gap plus Lula’s incumbency advantage and established voter base, even as runoff simulations remain statistically tied and the first-round margin stays within sampling error in multiple surveys. No major late shifts have altered the ordering in the final weeks before voting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Zema <1%
$141,811 Vol.
$141,811 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
32%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Lula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Zema <1%
$141,811 Vol.
$141,811 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
$63,202 Vol.
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$59,503 Vol.
32%
Ronaldo Caiado
$4,126 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$546 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$4,462 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
$6,851 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$477 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$288 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$296 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$296 Vol.
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
$316 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$259 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads recent first-round polling averages at 38-44% ahead of the October 4 vote, positioning him as the frontrunner to finish first under Brazil’s two-round system, while Flavio Bolsonaro trails at 34-42% as the main right-wing challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register in the low single digits and show no path to topping the field. Trader pricing reflects this gap plus Lula’s incumbency advantage and established voter base, even as runoff simulations remain statistically tied and the first-round margin stays within sampling error in multiple surveys. No major late shifts have altered the ordering in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Volume
$141,811Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETSource de résolution
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads recent first-round polling averages at 38-44% ahead of the October 4 vote, positioning him as the frontrunner to finish first under Brazil’s two-round system, while Flavio Bolsonaro trails at 34-42% as the main right-wing challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register in the low single digits and show no path to topping the field. Trader pricing reflects this gap plus Lula’s incumbency advantage and established voter base, even as runoff simulations remain statistically tied and the first-round margin stays within sampling error in multiple surveys. No major late shifts have altered the ordering in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$141,811Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETSource de résolution
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads recent first-round polling averages at 38-44% ahead of the October 4 vote, positioning him as the frontrunner to finish first under Brazil’s two-round system, while Flavio Bolsonaro trails at 34-42% as the main right-wing challenger. Other declared candidates, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register in the low single digits and show no path to topping the field. Trader pricing reflects this gap plus Lula’s incumbency advantage and established voter base, even as runoff simulations remain statistically tied and the first-round margin stays within sampling error in multiple surveys. No major late shifts have altered the ordering in the final weeks before voting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
68%
Oui
Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
54%
Oui
Flavio Bolsonaro remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?
91%
Oui
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