Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among five parties clustered between roughly 15 and 22 percent, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne trading positions in the top ranks while SPD trails. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as modest swings in turnout or late campaign focus on housing, transport, and security can reorder the middle of the field. Grüne hold the highest implied probability for fourth, reflecting their stable positioning just behind the leading trio in most surveys. AfD, CDU, and SPD trail in that order on the market, consistent with current averages that leave little room between third and fifth. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving traders focused on final-week mobilization and any polling shifts before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes Verts 46%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.8%
SPD 14%
$12,507 Vol.
$12,507 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
46%
AfD
22%
CDU
17%
SPD
14%
Linke
7%
BSW
1%
FW
1%
FDP
1%
Les Verts 46%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.8%
SPD 14%
$12,507 Vol.
$12,507 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
$6,528 Vol.
46%
AfD
$4,140 Vol.
22%
CDU
$182 Vol.
17%
SPD
$344 Vol.
14%
Linke
$738 Vol.
7%
BSW
$212 Vol.
1%
FW
$209 Vol.
1%
FDP
$154 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among five parties clustered between roughly 15 and 22 percent, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne trading positions in the top ranks while SPD trails. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as modest swings in turnout or late campaign focus on housing, transport, and security can reorder the middle of the field. Grüne hold the highest implied probability for fourth, reflecting their stable positioning just behind the leading trio in most surveys. AfD, CDU, and SPD trail in that order on the market, consistent with current averages that leave little room between third and fifth. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving traders focused on final-week mobilization and any polling shifts before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$12,507Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among five parties clustered between roughly 15 and 22 percent, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne trading positions in the top ranks while SPD trails. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as modest swings in turnout or late campaign focus on housing, transport, and security can reorder the middle of the field. Grüne hold the highest implied probability for fourth, reflecting their stable positioning just behind the leading trio in most surveys. AfD, CDU, and SPD trail in that order on the market, consistent with current averages that leave little room between third and fifth. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving traders focused on final-week mobilization and any polling shifts before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$12,507Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among five parties clustered between roughly 15 and 22 percent, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne trading positions in the top ranks while SPD trails. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as modest swings in turnout or late campaign focus on housing, transport, and security can reorder the middle of the field. Grüne hold the highest implied probability for fourth, reflecting their stable positioning just behind the leading trio in most surveys. AfD, CDU, and SPD trail in that order on the market, consistent with current averages that leave little room between third and fifth. No single recent event has produced decisive separation, leaving traders focused on final-week mobilization and any polling shifts before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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