August 2026 produced the warmest global mean temperature on record for any August, reaching approximately 1.65 °C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin. A strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming drove exceptional ocean heat content, with daily extra-polar sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August—unseasonably high and surpassing the previous March 2024 record. Multiple monitoring agencies, including Copernicus Climate Change Service, documented widespread marine heat and elevated atmospheric moisture, consistent with the market-implied 98.2 % probability of first place. Only a major downward revision in final homogenized datasets or an unforeseen re-ranking of earlier years could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,269 Vol.
$2,269 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
<1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 98.2%
3rd hottest 1.7%
4th or lower <1%
2nd hottest <1%
$2,269 Vol.
$2,269 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$764 Vol.
98%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$527 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$415 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.August 2026 produced the warmest global mean temperature on record for any August, reaching approximately 1.65 °C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin. A strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming drove exceptional ocean heat content, with daily extra-polar sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August—unseasonably high and surpassing the previous March 2024 record. Multiple monitoring agencies, including Copernicus Climate Change Service, documented widespread marine heat and elevated atmospheric moisture, consistent with the market-implied 98.2 % probability of first place. Only a major downward revision in final homogenized datasets or an unforeseen re-ranking of earlier years could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,269End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.August 2026 produced the warmest global mean temperature on record for any August, reaching approximately 1.65 °C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin. A strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming drove exceptional ocean heat content, with daily extra-polar sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August—unseasonably high and surpassing the previous March 2024 record. Multiple monitoring agencies, including Copernicus Climate Change Service, documented widespread marine heat and elevated atmospheric moisture, consistent with the market-implied 98.2 % probability of first place. Only a major downward revision in final homogenized datasets or an unforeseen re-ranking of earlier years could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,269End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...August 2026 produced the warmest global mean temperature on record for any August, reaching approximately 1.65 °C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis and exceeding the prior 2024 benchmark by a substantial margin. A strengthening El Niño superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming drove exceptional ocean heat content, with daily extra-polar sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August—unseasonably high and surpassing the previous March 2024 record. Multiple monitoring agencies, including Copernicus Climate Change Service, documented widespread marine heat and elevated atmospheric moisture, consistent with the market-implied 98.2 % probability of first place. Only a major downward revision in final homogenized datasets or an unforeseen re-ranking of earlier years could realistically alter this outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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