The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and the subsequent installation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader under constitutional succession have anchored trader assessments for year-end 2026. Ruling-party control over the National Assembly, courts, electoral bodies, and security forces has persisted, with Rodríguez advancing limited cabinet changes, selective prisoner releases, and cooperation on oil-sector stabilization under US guidance. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain largely in exile or sidelined, while scheduled judicial-reform talks and post-earthquake recovery efforts have not yet produced a full transition or new elections. These institutional and diplomatic continuities underpin the market's heavy weighting toward outcomes tied to the prior administration, with lower probabilities assigned to challengers lacking immediate institutional access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 83.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 1.7%
No Head of State 1.0%
$96,037,494 Vol.
$96,037,494 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
83%
Delcy Rodríguez
9%
María Corina Machado
2%
No Head of State
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 83.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 1.7%
No Head of State 1.0%
$96,037,494 Vol.
$96,037,494 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,840,526 Vol.
83%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,786,628 Vol.
9%
María Corina Machado
$1,458,235 Vol.
2%
No Head of State
$1,516,149 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,090,665 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$1,230,476 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$820,285 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,167,451 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,988,285 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,648,737 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,143,549 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,136,667 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,415,377 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,191,467 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,812,273 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,790,723 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and the subsequent installation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader under constitutional succession have anchored trader assessments for year-end 2026. Ruling-party control over the National Assembly, courts, electoral bodies, and security forces has persisted, with Rodríguez advancing limited cabinet changes, selective prisoner releases, and cooperation on oil-sector stabilization under US guidance. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain largely in exile or sidelined, while scheduled judicial-reform talks and post-earthquake recovery efforts have not yet produced a full transition or new elections. These institutional and diplomatic continuities underpin the market's heavy weighting toward outcomes tied to the prior administration, with lower probabilities assigned to challengers lacking immediate institutional access.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$96,037,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and the subsequent installation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader under constitutional succession have anchored trader assessments for year-end 2026. Ruling-party control over the National Assembly, courts, electoral bodies, and security forces has persisted, with Rodríguez advancing limited cabinet changes, selective prisoner releases, and cooperation on oil-sector stabilization under US guidance. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain largely in exile or sidelined, while scheduled judicial-reform talks and post-earthquake recovery efforts have not yet produced a full transition or new elections. These institutional and diplomatic continuities underpin the market's heavy weighting toward outcomes tied to the prior administration, with lower probabilities assigned to challengers lacking immediate institutional access.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$96,037,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and the subsequent installation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader under constitutional succession have anchored trader assessments for year-end 2026. Ruling-party control over the National Assembly, courts, electoral bodies, and security forces has persisted, with Rodríguez advancing limited cabinet changes, selective prisoner releases, and cooperation on oil-sector stabilization under US guidance. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain largely in exile or sidelined, while scheduled judicial-reform talks and post-earthquake recovery efforts have not yet produced a full transition or new elections. These institutional and diplomatic continuities underpin the market's heavy weighting toward outcomes tied to the prior administration, with lower probabilities assigned to challengers lacking immediate institutional access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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