Meta's Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (April 2026 release, codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. In a July internal town hall, Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang stated it had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly 10x more compute, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting from The Information pointed to an October target, potentially tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform. Wang reaffirmed progress in early September alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 update, noting Watermelon would prove "extremely competitive" without confirming timing. Traders are watching for verified external benchmarks, any October slippage amid rapid iteration cycles, and competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,550 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,550 Vol.
September 30
$3,447 Vol.
5%
October 31
$6,384 Vol.
74%
November 30
$2,719 Vol.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (April 2026 release, codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. In a July internal town hall, Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang stated it had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly 10x more compute, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting from The Information pointed to an October target, potentially tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform. Wang reaffirmed progress in early September alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 update, noting Watermelon would prove "extremely competitive" without confirming timing. Traders are watching for verified external benchmarks, any October slippage amid rapid iteration cycles, and competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,550End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (April 2026 release, codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. In a July internal town hall, Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang stated it had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly 10x more compute, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting from The Information pointed to an October target, potentially tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform. Wang reaffirmed progress in early September alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 update, noting Watermelon would prove "extremely competitive" without confirming timing. Traders are watching for verified external benchmarks, any October slippage amid rapid iteration cycles, and competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,550End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (April 2026 release, codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. In a July internal town hall, Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang stated it had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on unspecified benchmarks while using roughly 10x more compute, backed by the company's $125–145 billion infrastructure spend. August reporting from The Information pointed to an October target, potentially tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform. Wang reaffirmed progress in early September alongside the Muse Spark 1.3 update, noting Watermelon would prove "extremely competitive" without confirming timing. Traders are watching for verified external benchmarks, any October slippage amid rapid iteration cycles, and competitive releases from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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