Frontier AI models have demonstrated gold-medal or perfect performance on the official 2026 IMO problem set through independent benchmarks and limited official grading, with systems such as Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 variants, and select Chinese models reaching 42/42 or clearing the ~29-point threshold. However, no AI participated as an official contestant in the July Shanghai competition or received a formal medal under IMO rules, which remain restricted to eligible human students. This separation between benchmark capability and actual competition participation underpins the 75% market-implied probability for “No,” even as rapid progress in large language model reasoning continues. Key near-term catalysts include any policy shifts on AI eligibility or further official evaluations ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25% chance
$10,341 Vol.
$10,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% chance
$10,341 Vol.
$10,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Frontier AI models have demonstrated gold-medal or perfect performance on the official 2026 IMO problem set through independent benchmarks and limited official grading, with systems such as Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 variants, and select Chinese models reaching 42/42 or clearing the ~29-point threshold. However, no AI participated as an official contestant in the July Shanghai competition or received a formal medal under IMO rules, which remain restricted to eligible human students. This separation between benchmark capability and actual competition participation underpins the 75% market-implied probability for “No,” even as rapid progress in large language model reasoning continues. Key near-term catalysts include any policy shifts on AI eligibility or further official evaluations ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,341End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Frontier AI models have demonstrated gold-medal or perfect performance on the official 2026 IMO problem set through independent benchmarks and limited official grading, with systems such as Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 variants, and select Chinese models reaching 42/42 or clearing the ~29-point threshold. However, no AI participated as an official contestant in the July Shanghai competition or received a formal medal under IMO rules, which remain restricted to eligible human students. This separation between benchmark capability and actual competition participation underpins the 75% market-implied probability for “No,” even as rapid progress in large language model reasoning continues. Key near-term catalysts include any policy shifts on AI eligibility or further official evaluations ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$10,341End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Frontier AI models have demonstrated gold-medal or perfect performance on the official 2026 IMO problem set through independent benchmarks and limited official grading, with systems such as Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 variants, and select Chinese models reaching 42/42 or clearing the ~29-point threshold. However, no AI participated as an official contestant in the July Shanghai competition or received a formal medal under IMO rules, which remain restricted to eligible human students. This separation between benchmark capability and actual competition participation underpins the 75% market-implied probability for “No,” even as rapid progress in large language model reasoning continues. Key near-term catalysts include any policy shifts on AI eligibility or further official evaluations ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions