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icon for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

icon for Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Oct 1

Oct 1

No release by September 30 84%

September 23 4.2%

September 24 3.4%

September 30 3.3%

Polymarket

$96,346 Vol.

No release by September 30 84%

September 23 4.2%

September 24 3.4%

September 30 3.3%

Polymarket

$96,346 Vol.

September 15

$662 Vol.

<1%

September 16

$543 Vol.

2%

September 17

$547 Vol.

2%

September 18

$310 Vol.

<1%

September 19

$307 Vol.

1%

September 20

$307 Vol.

1%

September 21

$537 Vol.

2%

September 22

$584 Vol.

3%

September 23

$464 Vol.

4%

September 24

$594 Vol.

3%

September 25

$303 Vol.

1%

September 26

$305 Vol.

<1%

September 27

$307 Vol.

1%

September 28

$503 Vol.

<1%

September 29

$384 Vol.

2%

September 30

$849 Vol.

3%

No release by September 30

$81,443 Vol.

84%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's recent cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live model variants on September 2 and 15, 2026, has reinforced trader views that the next frontier Pro release will slip past September. Persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June or July after I/O teases—have established a pattern of extended testing and staggered rollouts for flagship large language models. With no official Pro announcements or credible leaks indicating imminent availability, the 83.5% market-implied probability of no release by September 30 reflects the absence of qualifying catalysts in the immediate window. Upcoming developer events or earnings commentary could still shift sentiment, though historical timelines suggest the next Pro iteration remains weeks away.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$96,346
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's recent cadence of Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live model variants on September 2 and 15, 2026, has reinforced trader views that the next frontier Pro release will slip past September. Persistent delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally targeted for June or July after I/O teases—have established a pattern of extended testing and staggered rollouts for flagship large language models. With no official Pro announcements or credible leaks indicating imminent availability, the 83.5% market-implied probability of no release by September 30 reflects the absence of qualifying catalysts in the immediate window. Upcoming developer events or earnings commentary could still shift sentiment, though historical timelines suggest the next Pro iteration remains weeks away.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$96,346
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No release by September 30" at 84%, followed by "September 23" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" has generated $96.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is "No release by September 30" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 23" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.