The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 15, 2026, and released the following day show D4 (exceptional drought) conditions across at least ten states, including widespread areas of central Colorado, parts of Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. This positioning reflects the record-warm June-August 2026 period across the contiguous United States combined with persistent below-normal precipitation that intensified flash drought in the Southern Plains and sustained severe-to-exceptional dryness in the West. Official measurements of soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA and USDA partners underpin the classification on the five-category scale. Near-term shifts remain possible only with substantial, widespread rainfall that improves multiple indicators simultaneously before the next weekly map, though current model consensus and seasonal outlooks favor continued persistence in core D4 regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 100.0%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$513 Vol.
$513 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
No
1-2 states
No
3-4 states
No
5-6 states
No
7-9 states
No
10 or more states
Yes
10 or more states 100.0%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$513 Vol.
$513 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$36 Vol.
No
1-2 states
$144 Vol.
No
3-4 states
$144 Vol.
No
5-6 states
$96 Vol.
No
7-9 states
$44 Vol.
No
10 or more states
$50 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 15, 2026, and released the following day show D4 (exceptional drought) conditions across at least ten states, including widespread areas of central Colorado, parts of Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. This positioning reflects the record-warm June-August 2026 period across the contiguous United States combined with persistent below-normal precipitation that intensified flash drought in the Southern Plains and sustained severe-to-exceptional dryness in the West. Official measurements of soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA and USDA partners underpin the classification on the five-category scale. Near-term shifts remain possible only with substantial, widespread rainfall that improves multiple indicators simultaneously before the next weekly map, though current model consensus and seasonal outlooks favor continued persistence in core D4 regions.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$513End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 15, 2026, and released the following day show D4 (exceptional drought) conditions across at least ten states, including widespread areas of central Colorado, parts of Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. This positioning reflects the record-warm June-August 2026 period across the contiguous United States combined with persistent below-normal precipitation that intensified flash drought in the Southern Plains and sustained severe-to-exceptional dryness in the West. Official measurements of soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA and USDA partners underpin the classification on the five-category scale. Near-term shifts remain possible only with substantial, widespread rainfall that improves multiple indicators simultaneously before the next weekly map, though current model consensus and seasonal outlooks favor continued persistence in core D4 regions.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$513End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 15, 2026, and released the following day show D4 (exceptional drought) conditions across at least ten states, including widespread areas of central Colorado, parts of Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. This positioning reflects the record-warm June-August 2026 period across the contiguous United States combined with persistent below-normal precipitation that intensified flash drought in the Southern Plains and sustained severe-to-exceptional dryness in the West. Official measurements of soil moisture, streamflow, and evaporative demand from NOAA and USDA partners underpin the classification on the five-category scale. Near-term shifts remain possible only with substantial, widespread rainfall that improves multiple indicators simultaneously before the next weekly map, though current model consensus and seasonal outlooks favor continued persistence in core D4 regions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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