Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and regional analyses indicates Beijing's September 22 high will likely peak near 29–31°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with southerly winds limiting rapid warming. This underpins the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 42.5% and 31°C at 33%, as traders weigh ensemble spreads showing modest daytime heating above the 25°C climatological average. Key variables include variable cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential afternoon convection, which could cap temperatures at 29°C or allow brief spikes toward 32°C if insolation increases. Updated official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration on September 21–22 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 22?
30°C 43%
31°C 31%
29°C 19%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
19%
30°C
43%
31°C
31%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
2%
30°C 43%
31°C 31%
29°C 19%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$119 Vol.
5%
29°C
$170 Vol.
19%
30°C
$548 Vol.
43%
31°C
$384 Vol.
31%
32°C
$158 Vol.
6%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and regional analyses indicates Beijing's September 22 high will likely peak near 29–31°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with southerly winds limiting rapid warming. This underpins the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 42.5% and 31°C at 33%, as traders weigh ensemble spreads showing modest daytime heating above the 25°C climatological average. Key variables include variable cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential afternoon convection, which could cap temperatures at 29°C or allow brief spikes toward 32°C if insolation increases. Updated official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration on September 21–22 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,378End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and regional analyses indicates Beijing's September 22 high will likely peak near 29–31°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with southerly winds limiting rapid warming. This underpins the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 42.5% and 31°C at 33%, as traders weigh ensemble spreads showing modest daytime heating above the 25°C climatological average. Key variables include variable cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential afternoon convection, which could cap temperatures at 29°C or allow brief spikes toward 32°C if insolation increases. Updated official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration on September 21–22 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,378End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS and regional analyses indicates Beijing's September 22 high will likely peak near 29–31°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with southerly winds limiting rapid warming. This underpins the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 42.5% and 31°C at 33%, as traders weigh ensemble spreads showing modest daytime heating above the 25°C climatological average. Key variables include variable cloud cover from an approaching frontal system and potential afternoon convection, which could cap temperatures at 29°C or allow brief spikes toward 32°C if insolation increases. Updated official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration on September 21–22 will refine resolution thresholds ahead of the daily maximum observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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