The market's 100% implied probability on a 68-69°F high for New York City on September 22 stems from official post-event observations confirming that range as the day's peak temperature. NOAA and National Weather Service station data, including Central Park measurements, recorded a maximum in that narrow band after a mild late-September air mass with limited daytime heating and light winds. With the date now concluded, forecast uncertainty has resolved into verified readings, leaving negligible room for other outcomes. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision or station anomaly, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary reports are validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 22?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 22?
68-69°F 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$92,983 Vol.
$92,983 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
55°F or below
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
No
68-69°F 100.0%
55°F or below <1%
56-57°F <1%
58-59°F <1%
$92,983 Vol.
$92,983 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
55°F or below
$103 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$186 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$405 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$959 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$10,731 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$17,095 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$25,583 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$17,614 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$7,817 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$9,510 Vol.
No
74°F or higher
$2,981 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's 100% implied probability on a 68-69°F high for New York City on September 22 stems from official post-event observations confirming that range as the day's peak temperature. NOAA and National Weather Service station data, including Central Park measurements, recorded a maximum in that narrow band after a mild late-September air mass with limited daytime heating and light winds. With the date now concluded, forecast uncertainty has resolved into verified readings, leaving negligible room for other outcomes. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision or station anomaly, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary reports are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$92,983End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's 100% implied probability on a 68-69°F high for New York City on September 22 stems from official post-event observations confirming that range as the day's peak temperature. NOAA and National Weather Service station data, including Central Park measurements, recorded a maximum in that narrow band after a mild late-September air mass with limited daytime heating and light winds. With the date now concluded, forecast uncertainty has resolved into verified readings, leaving negligible room for other outcomes. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision or station anomaly, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary reports are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92,983End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's 100% implied probability on a 68-69°F high for New York City on September 22 stems from official post-event observations confirming that range as the day's peak temperature. NOAA and National Weather Service station data, including Central Park measurements, recorded a maximum in that narrow band after a mild late-September air mass with limited daytime heating and light winds. With the date now concluded, forecast uncertainty has resolved into verified readings, leaving negligible room for other outcomes. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision or station anomaly, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary reports are validated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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