Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report and similar assessments. Smucker, first elected in 2016 and serving since 2017, secured an uncontested Republican primary, while Democrat Nancy Mannion advanced unopposed in her primary. Smucker maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised in the cycle compared to Mannion’s far lower totals. The district, covering Lancaster County and southern York County, has delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, limiting any realistic Democratic path absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
3%
$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
$15,668 Vol.
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
$10,126 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report and similar assessments. Smucker, first elected in 2016 and serving since 2017, secured an uncontested Republican primary, while Democrat Nancy Mannion advanced unopposed in her primary. Smucker maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised in the cycle compared to Mannion’s far lower totals. The district, covering Lancaster County and southern York County, has delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, limiting any realistic Democratic path absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,794End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report and similar assessments. Smucker, first elected in 2016 and serving since 2017, secured an uncontested Republican primary, while Democrat Nancy Mannion advanced unopposed in her primary. Smucker maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised in the cycle compared to Mannion’s far lower totals. The district, covering Lancaster County and southern York County, has delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, limiting any realistic Democratic path absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,794End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report and similar assessments. Smucker, first elected in 2016 and serving since 2017, secured an uncontested Republican primary, while Democrat Nancy Mannion advanced unopposed in her primary. Smucker maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised in the cycle compared to Mannion’s far lower totals. The district, covering Lancaster County and southern York County, has delivered consistent GOP margins in recent cycles, limiting any realistic Democratic path absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions