**Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers have driven overnight cooling in Tokyo, supporting market-implied odds of 91% for a 19°C daily minimum on September 10.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project a low near 18–19°C under humid, overcast conditions following a frontal passage that replaced warmer southerly air. Recent observations show September 9’s minimum at 19.7°C, with similar radiative and advective cooling expected overnight into the 10th. Strong trader consensus reflects alignment across official forecasts, though minor model spread around exact wind timing or shower intensity could shift the recorded low by 1°C. Resolution depends on the official Tokyo observation for the 24-hour period ending at midnight JST.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
19°C 92%
18°C 8%
17°C 2%
16°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
8%
19°C
92%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 92%
18°C 8%
17°C 2%
16°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
$94 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$732 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$579 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$592 Vol.
2%
18°C
$667 Vol.
8%
19°C
$1,927 Vol.
92%
20°C
$2,424 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,098 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$316 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers have driven overnight cooling in Tokyo, supporting market-implied odds of 91% for a 19°C daily minimum on September 10.**
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project a low near 18–19°C under humid, overcast conditions following a frontal passage that replaced warmer southerly air. Recent observations show September 9’s minimum at 19.7°C, with similar radiative and advective cooling expected overnight into the 10th.
Strong trader consensus reflects alignment across official forecasts, though minor model spread around exact wind timing or shower intensity could shift the recorded low by 1°C. Resolution depends on the official Tokyo observation for the 24-hour period ending at midnight JST.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,994End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers have driven overnight cooling in Tokyo, supporting market-implied odds of 91% for a 19°C daily minimum on September 10.**
Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project a low near 18–19°C under humid, overcast conditions following a frontal passage that replaced warmer southerly air. Recent observations show September 9’s minimum at 19.7°C, with similar radiative and advective cooling expected overnight into the 10th.
Strong trader consensus reflects alignment across official forecasts, though minor model spread around exact wind timing or shower intensity could shift the recorded low by 1°C. Resolution depends on the official Tokyo observation for the 24-hour period ending at midnight JST.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,994End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent northeasterly flow and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers have driven overnight cooling in Tokyo, supporting market-implied odds of 91% for a 19°C daily minimum on September 10.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models project a low near 18–19°C under humid, overcast conditions following a frontal passage that replaced warmer southerly air. Recent observations show September 9’s minimum at 19.7°C, with similar radiative and advective cooling expected overnight into the 10th. Strong trader consensus reflects alignment across official forecasts, though minor model spread around exact wind timing or shower intensity could shift the recorded low by 1°C. Resolution depends on the official Tokyo observation for the 24-hour period ending at midnight JST.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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