Persistent rain and northerly winds are expected to keep Tokyo's overnight minimum near 19–20°C on September 11, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes. Multiple forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources project widespread cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light northerly flow that limits radiational cooling while suppressing daytime heating. Recent observations show similar minima of 19–21°C amid ongoing precipitation, consistent with a broader pattern of above-normal moisture and suppressed high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the consensus on these stable, cool conditions against minor model spread that could allow an 18°C reading if winds weaken or an isolated 21°C if clearing occurs earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
19°C 49%
20°C 32%
18°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
19%
19°C
49%
20°C
32%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
19°C 49%
20°C 32%
18°C 19%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$29 Vol.
5%
18°C
$309 Vol.
19%
19°C
$144 Vol.
49%
20°C
$416 Vol.
32%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds are expected to keep Tokyo's overnight minimum near 19–20°C on September 11, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes. Multiple forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources project widespread cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light northerly flow that limits radiational cooling while suppressing daytime heating. Recent observations show similar minima of 19–21°C amid ongoing precipitation, consistent with a broader pattern of above-normal moisture and suppressed high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the consensus on these stable, cool conditions against minor model spread that could allow an 18°C reading if winds weaken or an isolated 21°C if clearing occurs earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$899End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds are expected to keep Tokyo's overnight minimum near 19–20°C on September 11, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes. Multiple forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources project widespread cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light northerly flow that limits radiational cooling while suppressing daytime heating. Recent observations show similar minima of 19–21°C amid ongoing precipitation, consistent with a broader pattern of above-normal moisture and suppressed high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the consensus on these stable, cool conditions against minor model spread that could allow an 18°C reading if winds weaken or an isolated 21°C if clearing occurs earlier than anticipated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$899End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly winds are expected to keep Tokyo's overnight minimum near 19–20°C on September 11, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring those outcomes. Multiple forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources project widespread cloud cover, high humidity above 90%, and light northerly flow that limits radiational cooling while suppressing daytime heating. Recent observations show similar minima of 19–21°C amid ongoing precipitation, consistent with a broader pattern of above-normal moisture and suppressed high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the consensus on these stable, cool conditions against minor model spread that could allow an 18°C reading if winds weaken or an isolated 21°C if clearing occurs earlier than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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