Recent northerly flows of cold, dry air under expanding high pressure from northeastern China have driven cooler overnight temperatures across the Seoul-Incheon region, with Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a minimum of 16°C and models converging on 16–17°C for September 11. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities at 17°C (46%) and 16°C (27%), reflecting trader assessment of clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that favor efficient radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 18–20°C provide context, but the current pattern has already produced sub-seasonal lows the prior night. Updated KMA guidance and any late-model shifts in wind or humidity before dawn will be the key variables traders monitor for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 11?
17°C 46%
16°C 24%
18°C 21%
14°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
11%
15°C
9%
16°C
24%
17°C
46%
18°C
21%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 46%
16°C 24%
18°C 21%
14°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$115 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
11%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$168 Vol.
24%
17°C
$1,280 Vol.
46%
18°C
$1,121 Vol.
21%
19°C
$106 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$30 Vol.
3%
22°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly flows of cold, dry air under expanding high pressure from northeastern China have driven cooler overnight temperatures across the Seoul-Incheon region, with Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a minimum of 16°C and models converging on 16–17°C for September 11. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities at 17°C (46%) and 16°C (27%), reflecting trader assessment of clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that favor efficient radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 18–20°C provide context, but the current pattern has already produced sub-seasonal lows the prior night. Updated KMA guidance and any late-model shifts in wind or humidity before dawn will be the key variables traders monitor for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,940End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly flows of cold, dry air under expanding high pressure from northeastern China have driven cooler overnight temperatures across the Seoul-Incheon region, with Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a minimum of 16°C and models converging on 16–17°C for September 11. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities at 17°C (46%) and 16°C (27%), reflecting trader assessment of clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that favor efficient radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 18–20°C provide context, but the current pattern has already produced sub-seasonal lows the prior night. Updated KMA guidance and any late-model shifts in wind or humidity before dawn will be the key variables traders monitor for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,940End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly flows of cold, dry air under expanding high pressure from northeastern China have driven cooler overnight temperatures across the Seoul-Incheon region, with Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts showing a minimum of 16°C and models converging on 16–17°C for September 11. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities at 17°C (46%) and 16°C (27%), reflecting trader assessment of clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that favor efficient radiational cooling. Historical September averages near 18–20°C provide context, but the current pattern has already produced sub-seasonal lows the prior night. Updated KMA guidance and any late-model shifts in wind or humidity before dawn will be the key variables traders monitor for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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