Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or habagat, is sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity over Metro Manila, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and supports overnight lows near the historical September average of 25–26°C. Current model guidance points to mostly cloudy conditions with light winds through September 11, reducing the potential for sharp temperature drops while also preventing extreme warmth. This setup creates tight clustering around 24–25°C outcomes, as variable rainfall intensity and any brief clear spells could shift the minimum by a degree or two. Broader trader dispersion toward outliers reflects uncertainty in exact precipitation timing and localized urban effects. PAGASA updates on monsoon strength and any new low-pressure areas will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 11?
20°C or below 55%
30°C or higher 54%
23°C 38%
29°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
20°C or below
55%
21°C
13%
22°C
20%
23°C
38%
24°C
31%
25°C
28%
26°C
24%
27°C
35%
28°C
15%
29°C
38%
30°C or higher
54%
20°C or below 55%
30°C or higher 54%
23°C 38%
29°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
55%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
31%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
35%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
38%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or habagat, is sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity over Metro Manila, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and supports overnight lows near the historical September average of 25–26°C. Current model guidance points to mostly cloudy conditions with light winds through September 11, reducing the potential for sharp temperature drops while also preventing extreme warmth. This setup creates tight clustering around 24–25°C outcomes, as variable rainfall intensity and any brief clear spells could shift the minimum by a degree or two. Broader trader dispersion toward outliers reflects uncertainty in exact precipitation timing and localized urban effects. PAGASA updates on monsoon strength and any new low-pressure areas will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or habagat, is sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity over Metro Manila, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and supports overnight lows near the historical September average of 25–26°C. Current model guidance points to mostly cloudy conditions with light winds through September 11, reducing the potential for sharp temperature drops while also preventing extreme warmth. This setup creates tight clustering around 24–25°C outcomes, as variable rainfall intensity and any brief clear spells could shift the minimum by a degree or two. Broader trader dispersion toward outliers reflects uncertainty in exact precipitation timing and localized urban effects. PAGASA updates on monsoon strength and any new low-pressure areas will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity, or habagat, is sustaining widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and elevated humidity over Metro Manila, which limits nocturnal radiative cooling and supports overnight lows near the historical September average of 25–26°C. Current model guidance points to mostly cloudy conditions with light winds through September 11, reducing the potential for sharp temperature drops while also preventing extreme warmth. This setup creates tight clustering around 24–25°C outcomes, as variable rainfall intensity and any brief clear spells could shift the minimum by a degree or two. Broader trader dispersion toward outliers reflects uncertainty in exact precipitation timing and localized urban effects. PAGASA updates on monsoon strength and any new low-pressure areas will refine the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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